The market settled in a flat tone last week followed by selling actions in banking, durable goods, metal, IT, and car stocks. Midcap and Smallcaps also watched sales bias at the end of the week. Investors bet carefully before the upcoming RBI monetary policy, FPI sales pressure, slow growth in the number of GDPs, and global cues. The market once again prepared a turbulent week with the RBI policy to hold the main spotlight given the deteriorating inflation conditions. Experts predict the increase in interest rates between 25 basis points to 50 basis points by RBI following the Fed As trend. Also, the bank’s reaction to their loans and deposits in the midst of changes in the RBI policy repo level will be sharply monitored.
On Friday, Sensex settled at 55,769.23 down 48.88 points or 0.09%. Nifty 50 ended at 16,584.30 under 43.70 points or 0.26%. Overall, for a week before June 3, the market is widely flat. However, some losses are offset by strong performance in the heavyweight Reliance Industry (RIL).Ril shares were closed at ₹ 2779.50 each rising 2.02% on BSE. Ril which is the most valuable company in BSE, holds a market capitalization of ₹ 18,80,350.47 Crore at a closing price. In this week, Ril’s shares jumped by almost 8% on the exchange.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services said, “After opening the gap on Monday, the domestic index struggles but succeeded such as GST Collection and PMI have shown a good start for FY23. Increased crude oil prices, GDP data and FII sales, and the meeting of the central bank to come is another factor that pushes the market for a week. GDP data released this week is in line with the expectation of growth slower because consumer expenditure and investment are injured by soaring inflation. “
Nair added, “The continuous increase in crude oil prices due to the EU decision to partly prohibit Russian oil to hamper the global market. However, the lack of trust in the domestic market resulted in a sale action to the closing hours of the week driven by the week driven by concerns over the policy of the central bank’s policies . “
The growth of Indian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed at 4.1% for the fourth quarter (January – March 2022) from FY22) which was hit by restrictions led by Omicron in January, lack of global supply, and higher input costs. Indian GDP growth is the latest this year, compared to the growth rate of 5.4% in the third quarter, 8.5% in the second quarter, and 20.3% in the first quarter of FY22.
What is expected this week:
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities said, “Inflation is a key factor will be the central point of all discussions in the coming week because Chinese and United States inflation statistics will be released. Other important events for the domestic market will be held results from the RBI MPC meeting. Market participants will try to read between the RBI monetary policy line and given the deteriorating inflation fears, the road expects the 35-50 bps Repo interest rate this time. “Nair added,” RBI is expected , however, the thinking of the central bank about growth and inflation will be an important determinant of the market trend. If the central bank decides to tighten strict policy tightening, the market atmosphere can swing bearish. “
For June 6-10, ICICI Securities weekly notes said, Nifty holds 16400 post-RBI policy results, will challenge 16800 and gradually towards 17200 in June 2022. Analysts here add, “We believe, after six sessions of 1000 points, retracement healthy towards 16500-16400 must be used as a gradual purchase opportunity with a focus on BFSI, IT, Auto, and capital goods. “